Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Week 13 - Take Two... this time with less enthusiasm

We'll dispense with the usual pleasantries first, as this post is being hastily rewritten because Blogger sucks and should die in a fire. Week 13. Renal Failure won, Team Duckgirl lost. She's out of playoff contention. And so is Prestige Worldwide. Renal Failure now holds the record for wins in a regular season with 12, and will most likely break Fantasy Virgin/Defending Champions point scoring record of 1422 in Week 14 vs. What the Canuck?

So...who's left? We're going to go through each team to figure out as best we can what each team needs to do or have others do for them to get into the playoffs (and feel free to correct us if we're wrong because this shit is complicated). And also for the purposes of this exercise we're going to assume that finishing fourth and playing Renal Failure in the first round of the playoffs to be the worst thing ever for that team, aside from not making the playoffs.

Realistically Predator Press (8-5) is in, but mathematically it's not official. A PredPress win over the Ramblers clinches the 2nd seed for them. But even if PredPress loses to the 7-6 Ramblers and the other 7-6 teams La Machine and What the Canuck? win, Canuck is way behind on the tiebreaker to PredPress. 81 points to be exact. Unless Peyton Manning and Ricky Williams put up 80 points a piece, PredPress' playoff aspirations are safe. The tiebreakers with Machine and Rambler will determine seeding, though PredPress is up 9 points on Machine and 42 points on Rambler, so depending on the score of the PredPress/Rambler game PredPress could possibly finish 4th and have to play Renal Failure in the first round.

La Machine (7-6) is second-most likely to clinch. All they need to do is win over Defending Champions in Week 14. Even if Rambler and Canuck win to force a four-way 8-6 tie, it's still all good because Machine is up 33 points on Rambler and 72 points on Canuck. If Machine loses they will need losses by both Rambler and Canuck to force a four-way 7-7 tie for the last two playoff spots between Machine, Rambler, Canuck, and DefChamps. Given that the tiebreaker advantages hold, Machine will slip in as the fourth seed and a first round matchup with Renal Failure and DefChamps the third seed because no one is catching DefChamps in points. Nobody.

The Ramblers (7-6) are in if they beat Predator Press, combined with either a La Machine or What the Canuck? loss. But if that doesn't happen it's still good for the Unfinished One because in a four-team 8-6 quagmire the Ramblers are up 39 points in the tiebreaker on Canuck for 4th place. A Rambler loss, however, could throw the Unfinished One into a world of pain, depending on who else wins. A Rambler loss combined with wins by Machine and Canuck eliminate Rambler. A Rambler loss combined with a Canuck win and a Machine loss invokes a three-way 7-7 tiebreaker situation with Rambler, Machine, and DefChamps that Rambler will not win. But a Rambler loss combined with a Machine win and Canuck loss is still good for Rambler because Rambler has a 39 point lead on Canuck, which will allow Rambler to get in as the fourth seed and give him a chance to point his rueful finger at Renal Failure.

What the Canuck? (7-6) needs to win over Renal Failure (ha!) and they need La Machine or the Ramblers to lose because as we showed in the Predator Press scenario, if four teams make it to 8-6, Canuck's going to be the odd team out. If Canuck loses, they're just as screwed because they win no tiebreakers. Canuck can be the 3rd seed and miss a rematch with Renal Failure with a win and losses by Machine and Rambler.

Defending Champions (6-7) need a win vs. La Machine and a Rambler or Canuck loss. Any team that enters the 7-7 tiebreaker with DefChamps will lose, even La Machine who is 89 points behind DefChamps who are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league (behind Renal Failure). If Rambler and Canuck both lose, DefChamps can finish third and miss a first round game with Renal Failure. If only one of them lose, DefChamp will get in as the fourth seed.

Everybody got that? Good.

Preview of Renal Failure vs. What the Canuck later this week. Hopefully Blogger won't eat that one too.

---Renal Failure says this is what happens when you find a stranger in the alps...

1 comment:

Unfinished Rambler said...

I'm not sure I'm following. Could you do it in semaphore, please? Then I might get a grasp on the scenarios.