Tuesday Morning QB: There's an app for that, loser!

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games. 

Well, this week again I'm not going to look back at what I could have done differently, because I still won...although this week by a mere 7 points and putting up a measly 88 points. So I don't FUCKING ROCK. I just rock, but still rock in first place nonetheless.

However, I am going to look back at what my opponent, Troi with his Future Ex-Cons, could have done differently.

One thing the California boi (see what I did there? clever, huh?) could have done differently: Put in a replacement running back for Alfred Morris who was on a bye.

Troi normally isn't an absentee owner, but this past week, I think he got distracted by being on vacation. See, I'm friends with him on Facebook and it looks like he and his wife went to Missouri to visit family.

What I also see is that he checks in an awfully lot on Foursquare. Dude is everywhere. He's eating (and drinking) at restaurants (and microbreweries), frolicking at parks and waiting at airports. What he's not doing is checking in on his fantasy football team...

...and it's so simple.

Because there's an app for that...

Yahoo! Fantasy Football '12 (pay attention to this link, my boi Troi) is available as an app both on Android and iPhone.

If only Troi had had the app on his phone and then used it...

...instead of losing 88-81, Troi could have won with any one of these three running backs who were available on the waiver wire: Danny Woodhead, Chris Ivory or Andre Brown. Personally, I would have gone with either Woodhead or Ivory, but any of the three would have given Troi the victory.

But nooooo, he left bye-week Morris in and got defeated by a weak 7 points.

Don't let something similar happen to you...whatever fantasy league in, I'm sure there is an app for your league. Get it and don't be a loser like Troi.

Tuesday Morning QB: Watch the waiver wire!

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games. 

Well, this week again I'm not going to look back at what I could have done differently, because to put it quite bluntly, I STILL FUCKING ROCK!

Instead, I'm going to turn my attention to Joe O. of the Bourbon Blasters who lost 56-74 to the Future Ex-Cons.

Joe picked up two running backs off the waiver wire last week: the Steelers' Isaac Redman and the Texans' Justin Forsett, all well and good. They both were nice waiver wire picks, considering that the Steelers' Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Dwyer were on the bench and that the Texans' Ben Tate also was on the bench.

In Joe's defense, he does a great job at making picks off the waiver wire week in and week out. Lesson for all of us: Watch the waiver wire!

However, when it came to putting the right one into the lineup, Joe failed. Why? He placed Forsett, a backup to Arian Foster, in the running back slot instead of Redman, who was a backup to no one. Redman naturally rocked with 25 points; Forsett didn't, with ZERO points. If only Joe had played Redman, Joe would have won 81-74.

Lesson for all of us: Play the right guy off the waiver wire and, in the process,...

Tuesday Morning QB: Roll the dice

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games. 

Well, this week I'm not going to look back at what I could have done differently, because to put it quite bluntly, I FUCKING ROCK!

With my 129-75 victory over Delusion of Adequacy, I vaulted into first place.

Instead, I'm going to look at what one of the other peons could have done differently to help himself to victory, namely one LOBO whose team Predator Press lost 87-82 to nonames.

LOBO played Larry Fitzgerald who had a measly 5 fantasy points instead of going with the gamble Titus Young but who all the fantasy football pundits had been hyping all week so why the hell not roll the dice?

Young had 29 points and would have given LOBO an overwhelming 106-87 win...

...but he had to be a PUSSY (nope, not just a lowercase non-bolded pussy, but uppercase bold PUSSY) and not take the chance on Young, who was second on the receiving depth chart after Nate Burleson broke a leg.

And LOBO knew better because during a Facebook conversation Monday night, he said this:

"L Fitz is always double-teamed and SF doesn't give up sh*t to WR. Barring an act of God, John Bray [nonames actually does have a name] should have this all wrapped up already."

Damned by his own words...all because he wouldn't roll the dice or to mix metaphors, "know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away and know when to run."

Tuesday Morning QB: If ONLY...

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games.

All it takes is one mistake.

Sometimes it comes on the front end; sometimes on the back end. For me, my error happened on the front end, but just as easily could have been on the back end.

It all began Thursday night. I had just gotten out of work. It was 8:15 p.m. and I wasn't thinking. I had a cold.

If ONLY paramedics had come to my house, maybe they could have saved me from my fate.

But alas they didn't and by 8:20, I already had lost this week's HBFFL game to Joe O's Bourbon Blasters; only the score had to be determined. That score would be 119 to 117. I left Seattle wide receiver Sidney Rice in at flex when I should have switched him out for one of three players: St. Louis running back Steven Jackson, New Orleans running back Darren Sproles or Oakland wide receiver Denarius Moore.

Rice only scored three fantasy points while Jackson and Sproles each scored 11, and Moore, 9.

I had forgotten a cardinal rule of fantasy football: recheck your lineup before Thursday night's game to see if there are any changes that need to be made. With Rice going up against the San Francisco defense, that is a change that definitely should have been made. To be honest, I probably would have gone with Moore, because I haven't been getting much from Jackson or Sproles and Moore has been on a roll.

But I didn't and for my transgression I paid heavily.

In the other league in which I play I made my crucial switch on the back end, only an hour and half before the start of Sunday afternoon's games, as I dropped San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith for Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman and then put Freeman in over Detroit QB Matthew Stafford. It paid off with Freeman rolling with 38 points; Stafford had 17.

I won there 100 to 69. I just as easily could have lost as I did here in the HBFFL.

I looked yesterday to see if Freeman was available in the HBFFL. He was.

If ONLY...

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Don't Believe The Hype

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games.

The fantasy football pundits have been praising Miami Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline over the last few weeks and when Indianapolis Colt running back Donald Brown underwent knee surgery, the pundits hyped Vick Ballard who was scheduled to step into Brown's spot.

Two owners in the HBFFL can tell you that neither lived up to their hype this past weekend.

Joe O. relied on Hartline, who had 0 points. He didn't play either Green Bay's Jordy Nelson, with 37 points, or Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin, with 26 points.

With Maclin alone, Joe's Bourbon Blasters would have at least come close 103-110 against Delusion of Adequacy. However, I would have chosen Nelson over Maclin this past weekend since Maclin hasn't been doing that great so far this season. That would have given Joe the win too.

Renal Failure, meanwhile, put Ballard, 3 fantasy points, in over either Fred Jackson, 13 points, or C.J. Spiller, 16 points, both from the Buffalo Bills. In RF's defense, if you were going to play Ballard, you might as well gamble now with neither Jackson or Spiller being particularly spectacular this year and playing against each other. However, I still probably would have flipped a coin and gone with either one of them over the unproven Ballard.

Tuesday Morning QB: Tom Fucking Brady!

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games. 

While I could pick on Joe O's choice of Brian Hartline (5 fantasy points) over Percy Harvin (27 fantasy points, read them and weep, Texas cowboy) this week, I won't. Instead I have to single out one particular owner's QB choice. The owner is Renal Failure; his choice at QB, Robert Griffin III, who had an abysmal four fantasy points.

And who did RF leave on the bench?

Tom Fucking Brady, with 21 fantasy points, that's who.

So instead of winning 81-76 over Chris Cameron's Purple Drank squad, RF's squad lost 76-64. I admit RGIII has been looking good, but after Brady rolled last week with 40 fantasy points, I don't see how one could bench him. Not to mention that Brady is an elite quarterback and RGIII, as a rookie QB, is nowhere near that status.

Also if RF had played Brady and won, it would have been adding insult to injury because Chris is a huge Pats fan.

 It would have been like:

and at the hands of Tom Fucking Brady. Take that, biotch!"

Alas, because of RF's piss-poor QB decision-making, it wasn't to be.

The lesson here: Always play Tom Fucking Brady, no questions.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Thursday night games AND APYS

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games.

I coulda been a contender...

...for this year's playoffs except for two things:

1. Me ignoring the Thursday night rule.
2. Chris ignoring the APYS (Always Play Your Stud) rule.

When you have a Thursday night game, make sure you get the wrong quarterback out of your lineup and the right one in.

For me, the wrong one:

I should have known not to play a dude with a lame-ass goatee.

And the right one:

 

original photo courtesy of Open Sports via Flickr, with a little adaptation by me

Nine points for Vincey Young vs. 22 points for Timmy Tebow. I coulda, woulda, shoulda won 83-81 over What The Canuck? Not lost 81-70 as I didda.

Now Chris' mistake wasn't as large a point mistake as mine, but it was just as crucial as it allowed Renal Failure, the self-proclaimed People's Defending Champion, to win 99-97 over Chris' Purple Drank squad and not help my playoff chances as a result. Chris played this guy:

Hell, I'd play the guy based on this photo.

Instead of this guy:

photo courtesy of The Suss-Man via Flickr

Dude is so quick. He's a blur.

LeGarrette Blount only scored one point to Michael Turner's four points, but as even a fifth grader can tell you, four is more than one and in this case would have given Chris the one-point victory over RF, 100-99. Plus you never sit your studs.

Not sure how to find a stud...or even your studfinder? How about this?

comic via xkcd.com

For next time, Chris.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Play the gimp

Welcome to Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where I take a look back at what I (and sometimes others) would have (could have/should have) done differently with my (their) fantasy football teams for that previous week's games.

Last week, my advice was to play a defense that has no chance in hell of scoring any points to get yourself to a win. This week, my advice is just as trenchant: play the gimp.

Example No. 1: Julio Jones. His legal name is Quintorris Lopez Jones, with Quintorris meaning "gladiator," and that he was on Sunday as he went off on three passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns, the first two in his career, and a total of 37 fantasy points. Dude, better known as JLo to his close friends, was coming off a hamstring injury and if you had him on your bench this past weekend, you didn't have a fighting chance.

Example No. 2, and more importantly (well, to me anyway as he was sitting on my bench as I lost 83-69 to Future Ex-Cons), Willis McGahee or Willis Andrew McGahee III, if you're nasty. Like Jones, McGahee also tallied a pair of touchdowns but on 20 carries for 163 yards. He had 35 fantasy points. His injury? A broken right hand or what doctors call "a boxer's fracture."

So based on my own advice, in week 10, I will be playing both Felix Jones (high ankle sprain) and Jahvid Best (concussion) off of my bench and I will crush Purple Drank like a pop can.

You can go for my underarm, Purple Drank. I will go for the jaw.

FF Corner Draft Day Sucker Wheel Bets

Welcome to FF Corner, my column on fantasy football. This time around we focus on bad bets.

Draft Day Sucker Wheel Bets

I worked in Atlantic City one summer back in college. One of the games there was the money wheel, which was nicknamed the "Sucker Wheel" because of the low payouts. Some of the strategies experts advise and people employ in fantasy football drafting are like the sucker wheel. They rarely hit.

These three are my favorites.

1. Pick a quarterback in the first three rounds.

Remember the first time you played fantasy football and you were told never take a quarterback early? Me too. But it only takes a few seasons under the belt before many owners try to break that cardinal rule.

Sure, you might make all the right picks one season. But long-term, year-to-year, drafting a quarterback early means you miss out on players that other teams will start against your lineup. And the difference in points is not enough to make up for it. You will be playing catchup the rest of the draft.

Caveat: If one of the top-three QB's is still on the board in the third round then make that bet.

2. Pick names not tiers of talent.

I see this a lot. I'm gonna go for this guy, then this guy, and I really like this other guy. These are also the same people who say things like this in the draft chat: "Why does everyone keep picking my players?"

Mancrushes do not win fantasy leagues. And they could get you in legal trouble.

Going for names can also lead to over reaching a round or two early, especially if you are on the ends of the snake. Maybe you like the suspense of hoping player x will be there at your turn but the house odds are against you in a big way.

Tiers of talent are the way to go. For every specific player an owner has their heart set on, there usually is another available player that will produce the same amount of points.

3. Draft the handcuff

Many experts throw around this sucker wheel bet: get your top RB's backup. And maybe the QB's too.

I said it last season and I still stick by my words: Handcuffs are a waste of a draft pick and a roster spot. Nine times out of ten the backup is way less talented than the starter. For every Matt Cassell and Michael Turner there are ten Maurice Morris types.

Someone might argue but what about RBBC teams? Same rebuttal: most of the time the committee has two+ backs that are not talented enough to be a fantasy RB1. Why would you want both on your roster?

Since any fantasy team is screwed if their top running back goes down it makes more sense to have a backup that is a clear starter or the #1 in a RBBC than the handcuff.

Agree, disagree, have your own sucker wheel fantasy football bets? Have at it in the comments...

Fantasy Football Handcuffs

Usually when handcuffs and NFL players are in the same sentence it means someone got arrested.

In fantasy football of course, it means drafting the backup to your #1 running back or quarterback. This way if your star guy goes down with an injury or gets incarcerated you will have their replacement.

Somehow along the way this became good advice, and I do not know why. It is bad draft strategy on so many levels.

Look at Adrian Peterson for example. His backup, depending on what reports someone goes by is either Albert Young or Troy Gerhart. Not only is there a severe drop off in production, but there is uncertainty over who the replacement would actually be. Minnesota might even go with a running back-by-committee if All Day was out.

Granted, there is nothing wrong with taking the backup deep in a draft. The problem is the handcuff tactic usually makes an owner over-reach and pick them too early, thinking other teams are planning to do the same thing. 

Draft above the level of a player's value and a team is gonna have a bad time, like Ike in South Park...



And then what if the star running back or QB stays healthy all season? You've handcuffed yourself with one less roster spot. 

Pick depth at running back and a serviceable backup QB and you will avoid falling into the trap of fantasy football myths like the handcuff theory.

The Who The Freak Are These Dillholes Fantasy Football Squad or Who To Pick Up Off The Waiver Week in Week 13

If there's one thing I hate in fantasy football, it's when the quarterback gives the touchdown to that running back, wide receiver, even tight end of whom you've never heard instead of the guy you're playing. Or even worse, if you have that quarterback of whom not only you but also no one else in the Alpha, Beta, Gamma or Delta Quadrants has ever heard, then you're doubly screwed.

1. Pittsburgh: Quarterback Dennis Dixon: This past weekend, it was a who's who of those players, starting with the top Noname Dillhole: Dennis Dixon. In our league, probably only Team Duckgirl had heard of him before this because she's a huge Oregon fan. The rest of us were, and in many cases, still are, scratching our proverbial heads in trying to figure out from which quadrant he was beamed to replace the Steelers' fallen captain. As a Steelers fan, I say, "Beam the f---er back, Scotty." (Yes, I censored myself. You should have seen the title of this post before my self-censorship. It was a fucking doozy. Oops.)

2. Atlanta: Quarterback Chris Redman: As if it weren't bad enough for my opponent, Defending Champion, who had traded for Big Ben a couple weeks back, DC started Matt Ryan who went out with a toe injury. Ryan was replaced with Chris Redman, who led the Falcons to a 20-17 victory.

Redman is not to be confused with Chris Redmond or the rapper Redman.

Other players whose names I noticed this past weekend that I didn't recognize, who scored in games which they played:

3. Oakland: wide receiver Dennis Heyward-Bay -- not to be confused with actor Dennis Haysbert or director Michael Bay and, as far as I know, not their offspring.

4. Miami: wide receiver Chris Hartline -- not to be confused with his brother, Mike Hartline, who plays for University of Kentucky or insert better joke here if you can come up with it, submit your entry to ivegotnothingbettertodowithmytime@yahoo.com.

5. Seattle: running back Justin Forsett -- insert your own joke here, Chris Cameron and Renal Failure, as you did last night in the chatroom (yeah, we hang out in chatrooms together, you got something to say about that? as far as I know, we're all heterosexual men content with our sexual preferences...um, as far as I know).

6. Cincinatti: tight end J.P Foschi -- not to be confused with focaccia bread or J.P. Ricciardi.

7. Houston: running back Vonta Leach -- not to be confused with Vonda Shepard or Mike Leach, tight end for the Arizona Cardinals, or the late Archie Leach, some of whose movies I actually liked.

8. Indy: running back Chad Simpson -- not to be confused with (insert your choice of pop cultural reference here, with so many Simpsons form which to choose) or Chad Simpson the World Dirt Racing League champion.

9. Philly: running back Eldra Buckley -- not to be confused with Eldra DeBarge aka El DeBarge or Eldridge Cleaver or especially not the late William F. Buckley Jr. or even Sr.

10. Baltimore: kicker Billy Cundiff -- not to be confused with Billy Currington (I'm going to leave you a link to him on principle -- um, yeah, I have principles even after leaving a link to El DeBarge, but at least not a video; I may be sick, but not that sick, dude).

I don't know about you, but I need all the help I can get in the last few weeks of fantasy football, so I'm going to drop almost my entire squad for these guys and the Detroit defense.

Remember that scene in Remember the Titans where Gerry Bertier points his finger at the opposing coach on the sideline in a menacing way?

Keep that in mind, RF. I'm coming for you with my new squad. To paraphrase another movie I saw recently, you're about to enter a world of pain, son.

PF PA Stats are Telling

The #4 seed, 8-6 squad wins a fantasy football championship and the rest of the league can’t believe it. When you look at their team you realize they had the highest Points Against (PA) and were #1 in Points For (PF).

PF and PA are telling stats.

Winning teams usually share one characteristic: a PF that is higher then or at least equal to their PA. Let’s look at the top four teams in the HBFFL after Week 11:



Here are the latest standings of the 14-team league I am in (I’m NE Argonauts):



As you can see the teams that score more generally have a better win/loss record. But as we have seen in our example in the opening paragraph, and in the standings of the two fantasy leagues, record might not indicate a PF higher then a PA.

Sometimes there will be teams that win with a low PF and an even-lower PA. They are playing with house money however, and once that runs out so does their season. It might happen early or late but it will happen and the pressure is on these teams to be flawless.

On the flip side are the teams, again like the example in the opening paragraph that are top in PF that also have a high PA. They generally hover right above the .500 mark, in striking distance of a postseason berth. Those teams are very, very dangerous because they score a lot and are used to playing high scoring teams.

So how does a fantasy football owner take advantage of PF and PA?

There is not much anyone can do about their PA. It is an indicator of vulnerability and completely out of anyone’s control.

PF is the key. Build a team that will blow up the scoreboard every week and you will be a formidable foe week in and week out.

It’s a take on the NFL adage of building a team that can beat the best team. Since we never know until after a draft which teams are the best, the tactic can be adapted to beat the highest scoring squad instead.

It starts with the draft. Pick players that are primed to score a ton of points at WR and RB. Chose those positions early and often in the draft because it improves the chances of getting top production.

During the season free agency provides the opportunity to upgrade your team. In the early weeks, look for the potential high scorers that were missed in the draft. You will also want to monitor the TE, K, and DEF positions. They can be a crap shoot most times but you have to swap out low-scoring ones.

Trades can help too but be careful. It is very easy to do a trade that ends up changing the scoring production of a team. Throw injuries into the mix and even a good deal for both teams could turn bad for one side.

In the end PF and PA are stats you need to pay attention to. Fantasy football success depends on it.

Taking Risks in Fantasy Football

Welcome to the first edition of my weekly fantasy advice column, yet to be named. If anyone has a good name for it let me know because I need one.

Today is about risk…

I read a great blog by Yahoo Sports writer Scott Pianowski the other day about taking chances after the Belichick 4th-and-2 call:

"The sports world is filled with managers and coaches who are conventional and conservative to a fault….

I see the same risk-averse concepts seeping into a lot of our fantasy sports, and while that might be the best way to play it in a non-competitive group, I know from experience that you need to be aggressive if you want to win a strong league. Some owners are afraid to trade. Some owners won't bench a slumping player because he was an early pick. Some owners would rather let 4-5 rules of thumb dictate their lineup decisions rather than get their hands dirty.

Fantasy glory does not come to the Dick Jaurons of the world, the guys who punt while a game is still winnable. Don't be afraid of how a loss is going to feel afterwards. Identify the most logical path to a victory and trust your instincts."

There is no try…



Like Bill and Yoda I also rolled the dice.

I had a great trifecta of RB’s in Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and Michael Turner but I could only start two (RB and Flex spots).

Meanwhile my WR’s were Calvin Johnson, Welker, and Driver, two of which have to start.

So I was looking to add a top WR to compliment Welker having a top RB to give up. I accepted a trade offer of Chris Johnson for Andre Johnson.

Talk about risk.

There’s Turner’s injury which means my #1 back is now Rice followed by Grant for the next two weeks (at least).

The trade was also supposed to remove the issue of having to pick the “right” player at a key position. With Turner’s injury and no more Chris Johnson the Flex position is a choice between Calvin, Grant, and Driver for the next few weeks.

But at the same time, Chris Johnson has not impacted my fantasy standings. I’ve won without him and lost with him.

And the trade doesn’t hurt me if I win. That’s the most important thing.

So yes, there are problems when it comes to taking chances. You will take risks and lose and take them and win.

But nobody ever takes a risk in order to lose.
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