Friday, November 29, 2013

What hath Week 12 wrought on our playoff picture?

by Renal Failure

When you make the playoffs, you feel like the most important man in the world...

Renal Failure fought back for a 2nd straight comeback victory, beating Kerridan's Okay Team 99-97 in Week 12 and earning a playoff berth.  On the flipside, Kerridan has been eliminated from playoff contention, being the unlucky victim of Knowshon Moreno's monster 33-point Sunday night.

It's not all sunshine and blowjobs for Renal Failure though.  Zac Stacy went down with a concussion, yet another injury to our effective RB ranks.  Luckily we've got LeSean McCoy coming back from the bye week feeling fresh and froggy.  We need it because our WR corps have not been producing. Jordy Nelson needs Aaron Rodgers back and Wes Welker needs... a hug? We don't know.

Shame on a fantasy football owner who tries to run game on Renal Failure...

At 9-3, your People's Champ is tied for 1st with Future Ex-Cons who lost to Purple Drank, keeping Chris's playoff hopes barely alive for another week.  Purple Drank is the longest of the long shots to make the playoffs.  Sitting at 5-7, Drank needs to win their last two games vs. Predator Press and Delusion of Adequacy AND needs Bourbon Blasters to lose both their remaining games AND needs Bald Spots to lose once AND Delusion needs to lose in Week 13 (because Delusion would beat Drank at 7-6-1).  And even if all that happens, Drank still needs to win the tie breaker against whoever is at 7-7, which does not bode well for Chris because Bourbon Blasters currently has a 101 points-for edge over Drank, and Bald Spots has an 89-point edge over Drank.

Bald Spots... see above except you're only 24 points behind on the tie breaker regarding the Blasters. You get Kerridan in Week 14 - winnable.  But you get Renal Failure in Week 13 - not good.

From the longest shots to the surest bet - Predator Press.  LOBO gets in with one more win - either over Purple Drank or Bourbon Blasters.  But that's boring.  Let's talk about how LOBO could blow it.  Predator Press misses the playoffs by losing their remaining games AND by Delusion of Adequacy winning out vs. Gerrog's Ninjas and Purple Drank AND EITHER Blasters winning out OR Blasters losing Week 13 but beating PredPress in Week 14 and winning the 8-6 tiebreaker (PredPress currently has a 73 point edge). 

Don't get caught with your pants down, LOBO...

Bourbon Blasters are in control of their destiny - win both remaining games and Joe is playoff bound.  If they go 1-1, they'll need Delusion AND PredPress to lose out (see PredPress's 73pt tie breaker edge). If they go 0-2, they'll need Delusion to lose out, and Bald Spots and Purple Drank will also have to lose a game, but if Spots and/or Drank go 2-0 and tie Blasters at 7-7 there's the matter of the tie breaker.  Remember, Spots is only 24 points behind on the tie breaker and will be on a two-game win streak in this scenario. 

Delusion needs some help to get in, but it's doable.  If Delusion wins out and Predator Press and Bourbon Blasters get stuck on 8 wins, Delusion will get the 3rd seed with their 8-5-1 record.  If Delusion wins out and Bourbon Blasters goes 0-2, Delusion will get the 4th seed.

Who gets their clothes moved to the consolation playoffs peg?

The battle for the #1 seed is on, but it's not really a race worth winning historically in the HBFFL.  Aside from Fantasy Virgin (aka Bourbon Blasters Joe disguised as his wife) in the inaugural 2008 season, no other #1 seed has won the HBFFL championship. Note: Predator Press was tied for the best record in 2011 with Purple Drank at 10-4, however Purple Drank held the tiebreaker and was ranked first in the standings. Only two #1 seeds out of 5 seasons have made it to the championship game (2008 Fantasy Virgin and 2009's Renal Failure) while three HBFFL champions have won with 8-6 records (2009 Purple Drank, 2010 Renal Failure, and 2012 Future Ex-Cons). But no #4 seed has ever won the championship either - '09 Drank, '10 RF, and '12 Ex-Cons were #3 seeds.

Two weeks left to figure all this crap out.  Whose hopes will be dashed in Week 13?

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